Dow Theory Update for April 5: Primary bull market signaled for SLV and GLD reconfirmed

Primary bull market in SIL and GDX signaled on 4/4/23

Executive Summary:

1. The primary trend for gold and silver was reconfirmed as bullish on 4/4/23.

2. The primary trend for SIL and GDX was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23. In the next few days, I will produce a new post with all the details.

General Remarks:

In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.

GOLD AND SILVER

A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. 

I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bull market since 12/1/22.

This post explains the secondary (bearish) reaction that developed against the primary bull market whose onset I forecasted HERE.

Following the secondary reaction lows (Step #2 in the table below), a rally ensued that set up GLD and SLV for a potential primary bear market signal (Step #3). On 3/17/23, GLD broke up above its 2/1/23 highs, unconfirmed by SLV. On 4/4/23, SLV broke topside its 1/13/23 closing highs providing confirmation. Such confirmed breakup has three technical consequences:

1. The primary trend for gold and silver (GLD & SLV) has been reconfirmed as bullish on 4/4/23.

2. The secondary (bearish) reaction has been terminated.

3. The setup for a potential primary bear market signal has been canceled.

The table below displays all the price action that unfolded from the last primary bull market highs until the most recent breakups. 

 

The charts below display the price action from the last primary bull market highs until the most recent breakups. The brown rectangles show the secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The purple rectangles display the rally that set up GLD and SLV for a potential primary bear market signal. The blue horizontal lines highlight the primary bull market highs whose confirmed breakup canceled the secondary reaction and confirmed the primary bull market. 

 

 B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.

I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bull market since 12/1/22.

So, in this specific instance, the trend's long and short-term appraisals give the same verdict:

1. The primary trend for gold and silver (GLD & SLV) has been reconfirmed as bullish on 4/4/23.

2. The secondary (bearish) reaction has been terminated.

3. The setup for a potential primary bear market signal has been canceled.

The table below gives a recap of the primary trend across the precious metals spectrum:

 

 

Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com