Thursday, April 6, 2023

Dow Theory Update for April 6: Primary bull market signaled for SIL and GDX on 4/4/2023

  

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. The primary and secondary trend for SIL and GDX turned bullish on 4/4/23

2. The primary and secondary trend for gold and silver has been bullish since 12/1/22 and was reconfirmed on 4/4/23, as explained HERE.

General Remarks:

This post thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. 

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs

A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. 

The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23. Following the 3/9/23 closing lows, a powerful rally propelled prices higher until the 1/25/23 closing highs were jointly broken up by SIL and GDX on 4/4/23. The breakup of the last primary bull market highs is the option labeled as “2” in this post. So, now both the primary and secondary trends are bullish.

The charts below display the most recent price action. The blue horizontal lines show the 1/25/23 closing highs (at 31.79 for SIL and 33.27 for GDX). The blue rectangles highlight the secondary reaction that finally evolved into a new primary bull market. The blue arrows highlight the day (4/4/23) when the breakup above the 1/25/23 closing highs occurred, thereby signaling the new primary bull market.

 

B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.

The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 4/4/23. Following the 3/9/23 closing lows, a powerful rally propelled prices higher until the 1/25/23 closing highs were jointly broken up by SIL and GDX on 4/4/23. The breakup of the last primary bull market highs is the option labeled as “2” in this post. So, now both the primary and secondary trends are bullish.

The charts below display the most recent price action. The blue horizontal lines show the 1/25/23 closing highs (at 31.79 for SIL and 33.27 for GDX). The blue rectangles highlight the secondary reaction that finally evolved into a new primary bull market. The blue arrows highlight the day (4/4/23) when the breakup above the 1/25/23 closing highs occurred, thereby signaling the new primary bull market.


 So, in this specific instance, the trend's long and short-term appraisals give the same verdict: a primary bull market signal was triggered on 4/4/23. 

Gold and Silver:

While not the object of this post, the primary trend for GLD and SLV is bullish, as explained HERE.

The table below gives a recap of the primary trend across the precious metals spectrum:

 

 Sincerely,

Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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