Now we can say with confidence that a new Bull market was born at the October 2022 lows
On 6/13/23, our Bull Market Definition
(BMD) was met. Our BMD has higher accuracy than the typical +20% on the
S&P500 to wit:
1. The BMD is the threshold from which advances have then risen 93% of the time to over +29%. One-half have risen over 80%, with the average Bull market gain being +111%.
2. As per our definition, all Bull markets have been accompanied by or followed shortly thereafter (4.3 months on average) by economic expansions.
3. Our BMD is more accurate than the standard +20% on the S&P 500. Since 1949 there have been 19 bull markets, and only two (11/19/01 and 1/6/09) have not been followed by substantially higher prices.
4. Since 1900, the average gain one year after a BMD has been 46.2%, and 83.33% of them reached at least one year.
So while anything can happen, notably short-term, the odds favor higher prices in the months ahead.
Editor of thedowtheory.com