Friday, June 16, 2023

Dow Theory Update for June 16: Our Bull market definition triggered on 6/13/23

 Now we can say with confidence that a new Bull market was born at the October 2022 lows

 On 6/13/23, our Bull Market Definition (BMD) was met. Our BMD has higher accuracy than the typical +20% on the S&P500 to wit:

1. The BMD is the threshold from which advances have then risen 93% of the time to over +29%. One-half have risen over 80%, with the average Bull market gain being +111%.

2. As per our definition, all Bull markets have been accompanied by or followed shortly thereafter (4.3 months on average) by economic expansions. 

3. Our BMD is more accurate than the standard +20% on the S&P 500. Since 1949 there have been 19 bull markets, and only two (11/19/01 and 1/6/09) have not been followed by substantially higher prices.

4. Since 1900, the average gain one year after a BMD has been 46.2%, and 83.33% of them reached at least one year.

So while anything can happen, notably short-term, the odds favor higher prices in the months ahead.



Manuel Blay

Editor of


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