A brief update on the trends for U.S.U.S. stocks, U.S. Bonds, and precious metals & their miners' ETFs.
The primary trends for gold & silver, SIL & GDX, and U.S. bond markets have not changed since I last reported. What is new since my last reporting is a nasty secondary reaction against the primary trend for precious metals and their miners. However, the primary trend remains bullish. Below is my latest report. When time becomes available, I will post giving details concerning the ongoing secondary reaction:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/04/dow-theory-update-for-april-20-update.html
As for U.S. bonds, they remain in a protracted bear market and no secondary reaction in sight. Below is my last update:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/01/dow-theory-update-primary-bear-market.html
As to U.S. stocks, our Subscribers have been out of the market since 2/22/22 (first warning) and 4/11/22. Here is my last update concerning the U.S.U.S. stock market:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/04/dow-theory-update-for-april-19.html
The need for Bear market protection in all portfolios, even the best curated ones:
Now some thoughts on the current stock market situation, the destructive power of drawdowns, and the need to protect any portfolio, no matter how well selected the individual stocks, from vicious drops.
Example #1: Nasdaq
One particular suit of specific stocks is the Nasdaq100 (NDQ), and, as you know by now, it has dropped big time. Many on the internet proclaim its unsuitability for many portfolios or even that it is a dangerous investment because of the vast drawdowns that occasionally afflict the NDQ. Such critics are right if one has a "buy and hold" mindset. However, I beg to differ. In our March 1st Letter to our Subscribers, I produced an in-depth study of the Dow Theory applied to the NDQ. I will share the tip of the iceberg here, as the full report is reserved for our Subscribers. Applying the Dow Theory for the 21st Century (aka. Schannep's Dow Theory) to the NDQ was astounding, as you can observe in the table below.
The key takeaways are:
- The NDQ significantly outperforms the S&P500 on a buy-and-hold basis.
- However, the NDQ occasionally undergoes devastating drawdowns.
- Such huge drawdowns make the NDQ an unsuitable investment for many investors, especially those needing to tap on their stocks savings. Huge, unpredictable drawdowns are the enemy of the retiree, pension funds, etc.
- The good news is that if we apply the Dow Theory to the NDQ., drawdowns dramatically shrink, and performance increases to really high levels (16.58% p.a. during the period tested that started on 11/1/1985)
In other words: Give the NDQ good bear market protection (the Dow Theory), and you'll keep its long-term huge upside potential compared to the S&P500 while getting rid of its vicious drawdowns.
Example # 2: High quality and dividend yielding stocks:
A more specific example that shows that you can be very good at picking individual stocks and end up being decimated by a bear market is Mark Hulbert's article (5/13/22) published on MarketWatch.
Mark shows the historical outperformance of Investment Quality Trends (average model portfolio).
Click on the link above to see the performance charts
of such a portfolio (and its horrible drawdowns).
As Mark explains, such a portfolio based on high-quality dividend-paying stocks tends to outperform the market. However, I noticed that when the bear strikes, as with all buy and hold, it drops big time. As with the NDQ, such a portfolio coupled with a good trend filter would work wonders. It would capture the outperformance in good times and eliminate the nasty drawdowns that also afflicted such a portfolio in the 2008-2009 and 2020 Bear markets, thereby increasing its outperformance in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. I have noticed that most investment strategies that outperform during the "good times" (example: Relative Strength and the Nasdaq100 itself) give back most gains during Bear markets. Bear market protection is necessary.
Example #3: Relative Strength stocks or ETFs:
It has been documented that high relative stocks or ETFs (strong momentum) tend to outperform their weaker peers. During bull markets, relative strength (RS) shines, but it comes at a price: RS tends to be one of the investment approaches that declines the most when the market turns bearish. It happens very often that RS underperforms buy and hold on a risk-adjusted basis (performance adjusted for drawdown). Once again, the Dow Theory comes in handy. If we apply a Dow Theory trend filter to a Relative Strength approach, we get the "upside" (the outperformance in bull markets) while we get rid of the "downside" (the vast drawdowns during bear markets). You may find an in-depth study HERE.
Conclusions:
Bear market protection is necessary. Don't think that your investment prowess and pet stocks will help you when the market goes down. In a bear market, all stocks fall. Trend following, and more specifically, the Dow Theory, is the best method to buy insurance against bear markets for free. No need to purchase expensive hedges (i.e., puts). The best offense is defense.
Sincerely,
Manuel Blay
Editor of thedowtheory.com
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