Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Dow Theory Update for April 19: Classical Dow Theory trends update

Trends for US bonds and precious metals unchanged


“Rhea’s /classical" Dow Theory

Depending on the way one appraised the secondary reaction following the 3/23/2020 bear market bottom, the primary trend was signaled as bullish, either on 4/29/20 or 5/26/2020. Please check the links to fully apprehend the two alternative ways:



The Dow Transportation made its last Bull market closing highs on 11/2/21. The Dow Industrials did so on 11/8/21. From such highs (Step #1 on the Table below), both Indexes dropped until 12/1/21 (Step#2). The pullback lasted 16 days for the Dow Industrials and 21 days for the Dow Transportation. So the time requirement for a secondary reaction was met. As to the extent requirement, both Indexes dropped more than 3%, so a proper secondary reaction was signaled. Off the 12/1/21 lows, the Dow Industrials rallied and made a higher high on 1/4/22 (@36,799.65), unconfirmed by the Dow Transportation. You know that lack of confirmation makes the ongoing trend suspect. From their respective highs, the Dow Industrials and Transportation fell and broke downside their respective secondary reaction lows (Steps # 4 below) on 2/22/22 and 1/21/22, respectively. Hence, the breakdown was confirmed on 2/22/22, and with it, a primary bear market was signaled. The table below displays all the price action that led to the development of the primary bear market signal. 



Following the bear market lows (3/8/22 for the Dow Industrials and 2/23/22 for the Transportation, Step #1 on the Table below), a rally lasting 15 days on the Industrials and 27 days for the Transportation met the time requirement for a secondary reaction against the primary bear market. Such a rally exceeding 3% on both the Dow Industrials and Transportation fulfilled the extent requirement as well (Step #2 below). Off the 3/29/22 secondary reaction highs, the Dow Industrials dropped for ten days, and -3%, and the Transportation fell for eight days and a whopping -13.4% (Step #3), setting up both Indexes for a potential primary bull market signal. A primary bull market signal would be signaled if the Dow Industrials and Transportation broke up above their respective 3/29/22 secondary reaction highs (Step # 3). 


A confirmed breakdown of the  3/8/22 (Industrials) and 2/23/22 (Transports) lows would cancel the secondary reaction and reaffirm the Bear market.



Below are the charts displaying the price action for the Dow Industrials and Transportation that led to the primary bear market signal. The blue horizontal lines on the right side of the charts display the relevant price levels to be broken up to signal a primary bull market. 



And what about the trend when appraised by the Dow Theory for the 21st Century (aka. Schannep’s Dow Theory)? It is also bearish. Schannep’s Dow Theory, since 1953, outperformed Buy and Hold by 3.21% p.a., with a marked reduction of both the depth and time in drawdown. Schannep’s Dow Theory achieved such an outperformance by investing only in the major indexes, which is quite a feat.

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Manuel Blay

Editor of thedowtheory.com

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