Precious metals unchanged
Since I am writing before the close, things might change. So readers beware.
US STOCKS
Schannep’s Dow Theory (more properly: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century)
On 1/31/2020, the primary trend was bullish since April 6th, 2020, as was explained here.
The secondary trend is bullish since 11/13/2020 (successful termination of a secondary reaction), as was explained here.
Please mind that lots of interesting research are being published at thedowtheory.com. For example, we are discussing profit objectives, clues as to new secondary reactions, impending tops, tests proving the value of the principle of confirmation, etc. So many things are going in our monthly Letter which are not being published on this blog. So, I encourage you to become Subscribers, as you are missing a great piece of the action. Our "timing" has been spot on. Furthermore, Subscribers are alerted in real-time of any impending Buy or Sell signal, secondary reactions, etc.
“Rhea’s /classical" Dow Theory
A) Market situation if one is to appraise secondary reactions not bound by the 3 weeks dogma.
The primary trend is bullish since 4/29/2020, as explained here. This primary bull market signal was determined by just demanding 13 and 18 trading days to appraise the secondary reaction that led to the primary bull market signal.
The secondary trend is also bullish, as was explained in depth here.
B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding more than three weeks of movement in order to declare a secondary reaction.
For those strictly demanding more than 15 confirmed days of declining prices, the primary bull market was signaled on 5/26/2020. More details about this alternative signal are to be found in our June 1st, 2020 Letter to Subscribers.
The secondary trend is also bullish, as was explained in depth here.
GOLD AND SILVER ETFs & GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
Nothing has changed since my post of January 30th, 2021.
The table below summarizes the current status of trends depending on the way one applying the Dow Theory.
US INTEREST RATES
General Remarks:
In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions in order to appraise secondary reactions.
TLT is
the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here
IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here.
Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas TLT tracks middle term US bonds. A bull market in bonds entails lower interest rates. A bear market in bonds represents higher interest rates.
A) Market situation if one is to appraise secondary reactions not bound by the 3 weeks and 1/3 retracement dogma.
The primary trend was signaled as bearish on October 5th, 2020, as was explained in-depth here.
None of the small rallies that developed after the primary bear market signal resulted in a secondary reaction. On 2/5/2021 a lower confirmed low was made, so the primary bear market remains in force.
Here you have updated charts:
B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding more than three weeks and 1/3 confirmed retracement in order to declare a secondary reaction.
The primary trend and secondary trend was signaled as bearish on January 6th, 2021, as was explained here.
On 2/5/2021 a lower confirmed low was made, so the primary bear market remains in force.
Here you have updated charts:
Sincerely,
Manuel Blay
(one Dow Theorist)
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