Primary trend for gold, silver and their ETF miners bullish. Secondary trend remains bearish
US STOCKS
The primary trend as per
Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since
March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the
S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing lows.
However, “capitulation” suggested
the opening of a partial commitment to stocks on the very day of the market
bottom (12/24/2018). More about that partial commitment here.
And more about
“capitulation” in general in the following links:
The secondary trend turned
bullish (official end of secondary reaction) on 06/20/2019, when both the
Industrials and the S&P 500 broke up their respective primary bull market
closing highs, and, hence, the secondary reaction which was signaled on May 9,
2019 as explained here. and here was ended.
Here you have an updated
chart.
 |
| End of secondary reaction displayed by the blue arrows |
As per the Rhea/classical
Dow Theory, the secondary reaction has not changed. Since the Classical Dow
Theory uses only two indices (Industrials and Transports) and the Transports,
and the Transports have not bettered their primary bull market closing highs,
the secondary reaction remains in force, and, hence, the setup for a primary
bear market has not changed.
Here you have an updated
chart as per the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory.
 |
| As per the "Rhea/Classical" Dow Theory the secondary reaction remains in force |
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/24/2018 as explained here. No changes. We
finally got a secondary reaction on 4/16/2019 when GLD violated its 03/07/2019
closing lows (and confirmed SLV which had done so some days ago). More about
the entrails of such a secondary reaction here and here.
Furthermore, currently SLV
and GLD setup for a primary bear market signal as was explained here.
On June 18th,
2019 GLD managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SLV. Hence, we cannot
declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, since the primary trend has
been bullish (we only have a secondary reaction), the primary trend remains
bullish. However, the longer it takes for SLV to confirm the more suspect the
higher highs made by GLD will look.
 |
| SLV weaker than GLD refuses to confirm. Secondary reaction remains in force. Primary trend is bullish, though |
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/18/2018 as explained here. No changes.
The secondary trend is
bearish (secondary reaction) since 4/18/2019 when GDX violated its previous
03/06/2019 closing lows (and confirmed SLV which had done so several days
before), as was explained here. and here
Furthermore, currently SIL
and GDX setup for a primary bear market signal as was explained here.
On June 17th,
2019 GDX managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SIL. Hence, we cannot
declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, since the primary trend has
been bullish (we only have a secondary reaction), the primary trend remains
bullish. However, the longer it takes for SIL to confirm the more suspect the
higher highs made by GDX will look.
Here you have an updated chart
The blue horizontal lines display the
last primary bull market highs. As you can see, SIL is seriously lagging behind
GDX.
 |
| SIL much weaker than GDX refuses to confirm. Secondary reaction remains in force. Primary trend is bullish, though |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
Awesome analytics, as always!
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