Precious metals unchanged
I am not posting
as frequently as I did in the past for the following reasons:
1) No
change of trends. Not even secondary trends. When changes of trends have
occurred I have diligently posted.
US STOCKS
The primary trend was reconfirmed on July 3rd, 2017 as was
explained here
The secondary trend is
bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as was explained here and here.
After the secondary
reaction closing lows the Industrials, Transports and S&P 500 have rallied
more than 3%. So unambiguously the setup for a primary bear market signal has
been completed.
If the 2/8/2018 closing
lows (Industrials and S&P 500) and 2/9/2018 (Transports) were jointly
violated (the S&P 500 must necessarily violate its own secondary reaction
closing lows as explained here), a primary bear
market signal would be flashed. Thus, the S&P 500 together with either (or
both) the Industrials and the Transports must violate their secondary reaction
closing lows so that a primary bear market is signaled. The red horizontal
lines are the significant levels to be violated.
On 3/23/2018 the
Industrials violated its secondary reaction closing lows. However, until now,
neither the Transports nor the S&P 500 have done so. Yesterday the S&P
500 did not confirm by a hair. It closed at 2581.88 whereas its secondary
reaction closing lows stand at 2581.00. In any instance, no signal has been
given yet. We have had some hair curling trading days but no signal yet. We
have to wait either for higher highs (primary bull market reconfirmed) or the
final breakdown. Please mind that the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) did yesterday violate its secondary reaction closing lows. However, as per the Dow Theory it is the S&P 500 the index which must violate its lows. Hence, no signal yet.
Here you have an updated
chart.
 |
| It ain't over until it ain't over. No primary bear market signal yet |
GOLD AND SILVER
In spite of all the turbulences that seem to afflict markets. The precious
metals have not even changed their secondary trends.
The pullback that got started on September 8th, 2017 has
unambiguously setup SLV and GLD for a primary bull market. A quite different
issue is whether the signal will be ever given. An in-depth explanation here. Please mind that a “setup” is not the actual signal. GLD has broken up
above the secondary reaction closing highs (on 1/24/2018, 2/14/2018, and
2/15/2018) unconfirmed by SLV. Thus,
no primary bull market has been signaled and the primary trend remains
unchanged.
Here you have an updated chart:
 |
| Months without changes |
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs
Precious metals (both the stocks ETFs anb the precious metals themselves
remain listless for many months now. Hence trends have not changed.
The secondary trend is bullish as explained here
For the same reasons given when analyzing SLV and GLD, no primary bull
market has been signaled for SIL and GDX, as explained here. GDX did not better its secondary reaction closing highs by a hair, but it
failed to do so. Furthermore, SIL was very far from its secondary reaction
closing highs.
On 11/10/2017 SIL violated its primary bear market closing lows (red arrow
on the right side of the chart). GDX has not confirmed. Lack of confirmation
implies that the primary bear market has not been reconfirmed, and, as with GLD
and SLV, the longer it takes for GDX to confirm the higher the likelihood
that the primary bear market may be nearing its end.
Therefore, the current situation remains unchanged. We have a primary bear market
signaled on 10/04/2016 (more than one year old, another candle to light). There
is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bear market and a setup
for a primary bull market.
Here you have an updated chart:
 |
| Neither the primary bear market gets reconfirmed nor is signaled a primary bull market |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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