Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Dow Theory Update for September 12: Industrials and S&P 500 make higher closing highs

Secondary reaction postponed for at least 10 calendar days

US Stocks

The primary trend is bullish since November 21st, 2016, as explained here and here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed on July 3rd, 2017 as was explained here

Higher highs made by the SPY and the Industrial imply that a secondary reaction is quite far away, since for a secondary reaction to exist it is necessary a decline of a minimum 10 calendar days on 2 of the 3 indices. Thus, we have at least 10 calendar days where it is not possible under Schannep’s Dow Theory to have a secondary reaction. At least one index (be it the INDU or the SPY) should decline by 10 calendar days. Lack of confirmation by the Transports (albeit not anymore divergence, since it is also trending up) merely implies that the rally might be in jeopardy. However, no secondary reaction in sight.

And what about the “Rhea/classical” Dow Theory? We need the Industrials to decline at least 3 weeks (and with enough extent for both the Industrials and Transports) for a secondary reaction to exist. Hence, no secondary reaction in sight either.

As a reminder, the trend when appraised by using weekly bars is bullish. It is an old cyclical bull market, but bull markets tend to die of old age.

Here you have an updated chart. The blue ellipses on the right side of the chart display the higher highs of both the Industrials (top) and the SPY (bottom). The Transports (middle) remain with an orange rectangle which depicts the current decline from the last recorded highs. Nonetheless, the rectangle is not to be confused with a secondary reaction. We need confirmation.

Higher  highs in the SPY (bottom) and the INDU (top) postpone the onset of a secondary reaction


The primary trend was declared bearish on July 7th, 2017, as explained here and here
The secondary trend is bullish, as was profusely explained here.

All the recent rallies notwithstanding, no primary bull market has been signaled, as explained in depth here.


I have already said some things about SIL and GDX when talking about SLV and GLD.

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

For the same reasons given when analyzing SLV and GLD, no primary bull market has been signaled for SIL and GDX, as explained here.

The Dow Theorist

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