Dow Theory Update for August 29: A closer look at gold and silver

No secondary reaction for stocks yet

US Stocks

The primary trend is bullish since November 21^st, 2016, as explained here and here.

The primary trend was reconfirmed on July 3^rd, 2017 as was explained here

In spite of recent declines, no secondary reaction has been signaled, as explained here

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend was declared bearish on July 7^th, 2017, as explained here and here

The secondary trend is bullish, as was profusely explained here.

 

SLV pulled back for 3 trading days, whereas GLD pulled back for 2 trading days. While the time requirement for a pullback to setup both ETFs for a primary bull market has been met (at least two trading days), the extent requirement has not been met, as neither SLV not GLD have declined at least -3%.

From the 8/15/2017 closing lows (which did not setup precious metals for a primary bull market signal), both SLV and GLD have made higher closing highs.

We note that GLD has bettered the closing highs of the last primary bull market (blue horizontal line). Rhea explains that the breaking up of the last primary bull market closing highs constitutes an alternative way to signal a primary bull market signal. However, SLV has failed to do so (it is well below the blue horizontal line). Thus, lack of confirmation means that no primary bull market has been signaled. More patience is required. Either SLV breaks above its last primary bull market highs, or we get a proper setup (in the way of a decent pullback) that set up the precious metals for a primary bull market (that is the more usual signal).

Here you have an updated chart:

No primary bull market yet. SLV is lagging and not confirming.

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set up for a primary bull market signal.

While technically nothing has been accomplished, price action of the recent days has put GDX close to breaking up above its secondary reaction closing highs. SIL, nonetheless, seems to be very far from doing so. All in all, we are still far from a primary bull market signal.

Here you have an updated chart:

 

No primary bull market yet (or never). The blue horizontal lines should be jointly broken up

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist