Dow Theory Update for August 28: Stocks close down and lack of confirmation persists

No news on the precious metals front.

US STOCKS

Days pass by and the SPY higher closing highs above the primary bull market highs remain unconfirmed. Furthermore, today the SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down.

What I wrote here remains fully valid.

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. 

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17^th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March 7th, 2014, for the reasons given here, here and here.

So the current primary bull market signal has survived three secondary reactions. Will it survive the fourth one? Confirmed higher highs will let us know.

The secondary trend is bearish, as explained here and here.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here the primary trend remains bearish.

For the primary trend to turn bullish, SLV and GLD should jointly break above the secondary (bullish) reaction highs. As a reminder, the secondary reaction closing highs were made on August 27^th, 2013. From such highs the market declined without jointly violating the June 27^th, 2013 primary bear market lows.

Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

On a statistical basis the primary bear market for GLD and SLV is getting old. More than one year since the bear market signal was flashed has elapsed. However, I am extremely skeptical as to the predictive power of statistics. I prefer price action to guide me, and the Dow Theory tells me that the primary trend remains bearish until reversed. However, the secondary bullish reaction against such old primary bear market is also getting quite old. Tie. 

Furthermore, the June 27, 2013 lows remain untouched. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the odds that something might be changing. But I wait for the verdict of price action.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up.

Do the ETFs miners know something about their underlying precious metals? I ask this because they are much stronger than silver and gold. Normally, the miners tend to lead the metals. While the primary bull market signal has not been flashed yet (more about the setup here) and the miners remain caught in a primary bear market, they are look much better on the charts.

The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here. In spite of short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GDX are not in a primary bull market.

The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist