Dow Theory Update for March 25: Stocks close up on dwindling volume

Precious metals take a rest.

Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

US Stocks

The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up on unconvincing volume.

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. 

The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17^th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March 7th, 2014, for the reasons given here, here and here.

So the current primary bull market signal has survived three secondary reactions.

The secondary trend is bullish too, as explained here and here.

Gold and Silver

SLV, and GLD closed modestly up. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, and in spite of all the bullishness than now surrounds gold and silver, the primary trend remains bearish.

For the primary trend to turn bullish, SLV and GLD should jointly break above the secondary (bullish) reaction highs. As a reminder, the secondary reaction closing highs were made on August 27^th, 2013. From such highs the market declined without jointly violating the June 27^th, 2013 primary bear market lows.

By the way, I alerted that the secondary trend turned bullish long ago (on July 22, 2013), when most market pundits were solidly bearish, as you can read here. Now, those very pundits are very bullish as only the sky was the limit. I take the middle road based on the Dow Theory: Since July 22, 2013 there was technically good reason not to be so bearish; on February 14th, 2014, there is no reason to be long term so bullish.

Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

On a statistical basis the primary bear market for GLD and SLV is getting old. More than one year since the bear market signal was flashed has elapsed. However, I am extremely skeptical as to the predictive power of statistics. I prefer price action to guide me, and the Dow Theory tells me that the primary trend remains bearish until reversed.

Furthermore, the June 27, 2013 lows remain untouched. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the odds that something might be changing. But I wait for the verdict of price action.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. Yesterday I profusely explained that SIL and GDX set up for a primary bull market signal. You can find all the relevant information from a Dow Theory standpoint here.

Please mind that a setup is not the real thing. So the primary trend has not turned bullish yet (or maybe “never”).

The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here. In spite of short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.

The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.

Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:

The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here. In spite of short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.

The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist