Primary and secondary trends unchanged for US stocks, US interest rates, precious metals and their ETFs miners unchanged
US STOCKS
Under Schannep’s Dow Theory
The primary trend is
bearish since March 9th (penetration of the lows of the current
secondary reaction) or even February 25th (alternative exit based on
the penetration of the lows of the previously completed secondary
reaction), as explained here.
Of course, the
secondary trend is also bearish.
Under the Rhea/Classical
Dow Theory
The primary and secondary
trend turned bearish on March 9th (once again: the lows of the last
completed secondary reaction violated) as explained here.
Change in
secular trend (appraised using Schannep's Dow Theory applied to weekly bars)
If we appraise the trend for
US stocks by using weekly bars, what
I’d label the “secular” trend turned bearish yesterday. Readers of this
blog know that I use weekly bars to appraise the higher order trend. More about
the use of weekly bars in order to appraise the “secular” trend here.
Now let’s look at the
entrails of the current “secular bear signal”. Here is the chart:
The starting point was a
secular strong bullish trend that was signaled on 1/08/2016.
On 09/21/2018 the INDU and the
S&P 500 make their highest weekly closing highs. The Transports did so on 9/14/2018.
From those weekly highs, the INDU and S&P 500 declined for 13 weeks. The
Transports declined for 14 weeks. Hence, the average time of the three indices
was more than 8 and the time requirement
for a secondary reaction was met. As to the decline, the minimum movement I
require is 6.7%. Why this figure?
Very easy.
Under Schannep’s Dow Theory
the minimum movement stands at 3%. The minimum time for a movement to be
meaningful is 2 days (the two bars rally/pullback following the secondary reaction
lows/highs). If we use weeklies, two bars imply 10 trading days. If we divide
10 between 2, we get 5. Search in the web “Brownian motion” and you’ll understand
why I calculate the square root of 5 which equals 2.236. This is the volatility
adjustment (2 days is not the same as 10 days, two weeks). 2.236 x 3 (the
minimum volatility for 2 days) equals 6.7%, which is the minimum volatility I
use when appraising the trend with weekly bars.
As you can see in the
spreadsheet below all three indices declined more than 6.7%.
Furthermore, the lows of
the secondary reaction were followed by a rally exceeding 6.7%, so the setup
for a secular bear market was completed. Such secondary reaction (and the setup
for the secular bear market) was nullified when the INDU and S&P 500
bettered their secondary reaction highs. However, even though the secondary reaction
was ended, it remains a valid exit point, as I repeat ad nauseam in this blog. So, last Friday March 20th, 2020, when the weekly bar was
completed, the lows of the last completed secondary reaction were penetrated by
the S&P 500 and Industrials (the Transports had done so last week), and, accordingly, we declare the "secular" trend as bearish.
The good news is that, with a little bit of luck, this "secular" bear does not have lot's of follow through. I tested what would have happened if, during the period 1998-2020 tested, I had gone short when the secular trend turned bearish and covered when it turned bullish.
Here you have the three closed trades that would have been taken (the current one: enter short on March 20th, 2020, has not been covered yet, so it cannot be included):
 |
| Trades taken in going short when secular trend turned bearish and covering when it turned bullish |
Out of three "ended" secular bear markets. Two resulted in significant further decline following the secular bear market signal. The short corresponding to the 2000-2002 bear market netted out a profit of 16.81%, which implies that the further decline following the secular bear market signal had to be much larger than -16.81% (as by definition we cannot cover at the market bottom).
The short corresponding to the 2008-2009 bear market resulted in a profit of 28.01%, which implies that the further decline following the secular bear market signal had to be much larger than
-28.01% (as by definition we cannot cover at the market bottom and the profit of 28.01% was made in spite of our covering at a quite high distance from the bear market lows. Please mind that we'd have covered on 07/27/2009, a relatively distant date from the market bottom of 03/09/2009).
However, the secular bear market signal of 08/01/2016 did not have any significant further decline. Shorting resulted in a whipsaw (having to cover at a much higher level) as the trade was a loser of -13.87%.
If the current secular bear market is going to be like the one of 2016, then we have already suffered the worst part. However, if 2020 is a repeat of 2000-2002 or 2008-2009 then we should brace ourselves for more declines.
From the three short "secular" trades we can draw one conclusion: The Dow Theory, irrespective of time frame (daily or weekly bars) tends to be most of the time precise at timely signaling changes in trends. I really was surprised to see that shorts would have been on average profitable. On daily bars this wouldn't have surprised, though.
While I don’t trade
according to the secular trend, it serves me to give me a much longer term
perspective about the current condition of the market. Furthermore, even if we
time our trades as per the trend determined by using daily bars, my preliminary
research seems to show that superimposing
a “Dow Theory-determined” secular trend filter seems to improve results (or
more exactly: weeding out suboptimal
trades and reducing drawdowns, even though there is no guarantee of increased
overall performance, as in some instances too many trades, some of them good
ones –in the beginning of new trends- may be weeded out). In other words, don’t
enter a trade determined by the daily bars if the “secular” trend is bearish.
I’m also preliminary concluding
that the secular trend filter comes in particularly
handy when dealing with noisy markets. In my last post I wrote about a
noise indicator I’m developing and how I can classify markets according to
their noise. Thus, gold is noisier than US stock indices. And Chinese indices
(i.e. large cap) are noisier than US stocks. In other words, if I am trading US
stock indices according to daily bars (that is the “normal” way to apply the
Dow Theory, be it Schannep’s or the “classical”) it seems unnecessary
superimposing a secular trend filter. There is enough “signal” in US stocks
indices so it is not necessary to add an additional filter (the less rules, the
better; the simpler our trading systems, the more robust and dependable when
looking forward).
On the other hand, with noisier
markets such as gold, I seem to preliminary discern that rejecting long trades
when the secular trend is bearish improves return while reducing drawdowns. It
might even be the only way to trade noisy markets if one aims for decent
profits.
And what about trading US
stock indices only according to the secular trend? Well, I don’t recommend it
because trading along the secular trend entails too ample stops, so you can
potentially (or “actually” as in March 2020) experience drawdowns exceeding
30%. For my personal risk preference this is way too risky. Two losing big trades
in a row could be quite unpleasant. As far as I tested from 1990 to date, this
has never happened, but I feel uncomfortable trading with stops (the lows of
the current or last completed secondary reaction) that are too wide.
I must say, though, in
favor of trading stocks along the secular trend the following:
·
From 1998 to date there has
never been a losing trade. Even the current one, exited more than 30% from the
top, has been a modest winning trade.
·
The profit factor (total
amount won divided per total amount loss on a closed trade basis) has been
infinity (that is there were no losing trades).
·
Hence, on a closed trade
basis, even now we have never had a drawdown (albeit we have seen unrealized
profits “vaporize” in just three weeks)
·
If we appraise performance
from 08/31/1998 to 03/20/2020, CAGR would have been 5.10% which is slightly
inferior to the CAGR made on identical period when using daily bars (CAGR of
5.88% not published yet on this blog).
·
However, it would have been
piece of cake to trade, just 4 trades in more than 21 years.
·
Even with the current
drawdown, the Dow Theory applied to weekly bars would have handsomely
beaten buy and hold (a total return of 196.97% versus 102.48%) whereas drawdowns (in 2000-2002 and 2008-2009)
would have been smaller. Even now in March 2020 it could well happen that the
drawdown of the Dow Theory when applied to weekly bars will be smaller than
that of buy and hold. We still don’t know.
Therefore, it maybe makes sense
to trade US stock indices along weekly bars if they are part of a portfolio
(i.e. if stocks allocation were just 25%, and, i.e. a 30% loss would just entail
a 7.5% loss at portfolio level). I insist, though, than on a closed trade basis
all trades were winners. The accuracy in detecting winning trades shows us that the longer the time frame the more signal and less noise. However, more accuracy does not necessarily translate into more return or even less drawdown (when measured as "vaporized" unrealized profits)
Here you have some screenshots
taken from TradeStation® performance report:
 |
| Four winning trades in more than 21 years. No losers |
 |
| Total return outperformed buy and hold |
 |
| Accumulative monthly return. In 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 drawdowns were kept at bay |
 |
| Detail of each trade taken and (right side) percentage won on each trade |
 |
| Equity curve on a closed trade basis: No drawdown |
GOLD AND SILVER
In just four days SLV
declined drastically and almost violated the last recorded primary bear market
lows. GLD declined but on a much more muted basis. Hence, the decline does not
meet the time requirement for a
secondary reaction.
On March 11th,
SLV violated the lows of the last primary bear market. Rhea (page 77 of his
book, Fraser Edition 1993) recognized as a valid exist point the closing lows
of the last primary bear market (red horizontal lines on the charts below). GLD
remains at a safe distance, and hence no primary bear market was signaled. More
about the alternative entry and exit signals under the Dow Theory here.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary and secondary
trend was signaled as bearish on March 11th, 2020 as explained here
US INTEREST RATES
Depending on the way one
appraises the secondary reaction that led to the setup that resulted in the
primary bull market signal, the primary bull market was signalled either on
11/19/2018 or 12/18/2018. Rhea wrote that the definition of secondary reaction
is not carved in stone. The signal of 11/19/2018 was obtained by being
satisfied with just 14 trading days for TLT and 15 days for IEF. The signal of
12/18/2018 was obtained by being strict and demanding on a confirmed basis at
least 15 trading days on both ETFs. It’s up to each investor to decide what to
do (i.e. to commit to each signal 50% of one’s equity or go fully invested with
just one signal).
On 11/08/2019 as secondary
reaction was signaled, as explained here.
On 02/21/2020 TLT bettered
its last recorded primary bull market highs of 08/28/2019. On that date IEF
equalled (but did not better) its last recorded primary bull market highs of
09/04/2019, and hence there was no confirmation. On 02/24/2020 IEF did better
its primary bull market highs and, therefore, we can declare the secondary reaction has ended, and the
primary bull market as reconfirmed. From the reconfirmation date of
02/24/2020 TLT and IEF went parabolic reflecting the current chaos which is
plaguing all markets. However, during the last few days both ETFs are declining.
The current decline does not meet the time requirement for a secondary reaction
yet, and hence the secondary trend remains bullish.
Sincerely,
One Dow Theorist
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