Dow Theory Update for January 10: Trends remain unchanged

However, precious metals could change their secondary trends soon if current rally persists

I am writing before the close, so things might change (especially for stocks) after the close.

US STOCKS

The primary and secondary trend is bullish since November 21^st, 2016, as explained here and here.

The Industrials made on December 20^th, 2016 a higher closing high unconfirmed by the Transports and SPY. Furthermore, since that date, the Industrials have been unable to make higher highs.

No secondary (bearish) reaction against the current primary bull market is in sight on the charts. Here you have an updated chart where you can see that stocks have been meandering. They have failed to make higher highs but at the same time no decline has qualified as a secondary reaction. 

No secondary reaction in sight unless stocks suddenly crash below the last recorded lows

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here. The primary bear market was signaled on September 30rd, 2016

After what can be considered a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market (the rally retraced more than 1/3 of the previous decline on a confirmed basis), newer lows (breaking down below the last recorded primary bear market closing lows) has re-confirmed the primary bear market on November 14^th, 2016.

If the current rally persists for some more days, gold and silver will change their secondary trend to bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bear market). If we apply the classical Dow Theory, GLD and SLV have retraced more than 1/3 of the current primary bear market swing (measured from the highs of the last completed secondary reaction, which is displayed by blue rectangles). However, the time requirement (let's say three weeks) has not been met by SLV. Here you have an updated chart showing the current rally and the price retracements hitherto achieved.

SLV and GDX are very close to signaling a secondary reaction. Just a little bit more time is needed

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs

The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

After what can be considered a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market (the rally retraced almost 1/3 of the previous decline on a confirmed basis), newer lows (breaking down below the last recorded primary bear market closing lows) has re-confirmed the primary bear market on November 13^th, 2016

If the current rally persists for some more days and the last recorded highs of January 5th are jointly bettered, SIL and GDX will change their secondary trend to bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bear market). As you can see on the chart bellow, both ETFs have retraced ca. 50% of the current primary bear market swing. 

A little bit more time rallying and higher highs would signal a secondary reaction

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist