And hence not even a secondary reaction existed for them
US STOCKS
The secondary trend is bearish
(secondary reaction), as explained here.
As I alerted here, US stocks have set up for a primary bear market
signal. The Industrials (and also the SPY) have also rallied by more than three
percent. Thus, unambiguously the set up for a primary bear market is beyond
questioning. However, at the same time, it seems more likely that such strong
rallies (while setting up the market for a primary bear market signal) are
harbingers of a break up above the last recorded primary bull market highs of
April 20th. We will not jump the gun, and wait for market action.
Until now only the SPY (and S&P 500) has broken up its previous primary
bull market highs. Thus, anything may happen.
Please mind that a setup for a
primary bear market does not imply that a primary bear market is certainly
coming. The secondary reaction closing low may not be jointly violated (or
never be violated) in which case no primary bear market would be signaled. More
about the different scenarios and how this time (should there be any primary
bear market signal) the classical Dow Theory could be earlier than Schannep’s here (which is no flaw in Schannep’s Dow Theory, as its
very rules say that “classical” Dow Theory signals are to be taken into account
as well).
GOLD AND SILVER
The secondary trend is bearish
(secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here.
SLV and GLD have rallied
vigorously after May 27th (GLD) and June 1st (SLV)
closing lows. While it has been a strong rally, I feel it does not fulfill the
extent requirement in volatility-adjusted terms in order to set up both
precious metals for a primary bear market signal. Please mind that this is not
exact science. However, both rallies are falling short of the minimum
percentage requirement. More about volatility adjustments and how I perform
them, here.
Here you have an updated
chart. The red rectangles display the secondary reaction and the blue
rectangles display the current rally.
![]() |
Current rally still lacks enough magnitude |
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary and secondary
trend is bullish as explained here
I mentioned in my last post
that the then ongoing decline for both SIL and GDX didn’t qualify as a
secondary reaction, as explained here.
Well, today both SIL and GDX
have jumped to new closing highs. Therefore, the clock for appraising a
secondary reaction has been set to zero. Any secondary reaction is to be
counted from the last confirmed closing highs. Here you have an updated chart.
The blue arrows at the right side of the chart display the today’s closing
highs.
![]() |
There was no secondary reaction for SIL and GDX |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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