Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Dow Theory Update for June 29: Primary bull market for Gold and Silver reconfirmed

Silver and Gold miners ETFs made new confirmed higher highs


The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here.

The secondary trend, evidently, is bearish too, as no secondary reaction has been born. The current rally is irrelevant from a Dow Theory standpoint, as the minimum time requirement has not been met.


The primary trend is bullish (Dow Theory signal of March 17th, 2016), as reported here and here.

Today SLV finally managed to better on a closing basis its last recorded primary bull market highs of April 29th, 2016 (blue arrow on SLV’s chart), and thereby, it has confirmed GLD’s higher highs of June 15th, 2106 (blue arrow on GLD’s chart). Therefore, the primary bull market highs (red horizontal lines) have been jointly broken out, which means:

            1) The primary bull market has been reconfirmed.

2) The secondary reaction (red rectangles on the charts) is thereby extinguished, and hence, the secondary trend turns bullish too. 

3) The setup for a primary bear market has been evidently extinguished too. I always insist that a setup for a primary bear/bull market is just that: A setup. Sometimes it materializes into a real signal, sometimes not. 

Here you have an updated chart:

Primary bull market reconfirmed

Therefore, any new secondary reaction is to be counted from the new recorded highs (or those highs that may likely follow). 


The primary and secondary trend is bullish as explained here

The most recent decline experienced by SIL and GDX did not qualify as a secondary reaction.  Today’s confirmed higher highs have set anew the clock for a secondary reaction to zero (more about it here).

Here you have an updated chart:

SIL and GDX continue making higher confirmed highs.

By the way, the price action of SIL and GDX following the Dow Theory “buy” (primary bull market) signal of March 3rd 2016 epitomizes the need to act quickly on any signal. Those not acting on the signal who waited for a pullback in order to get a better entry price have been disappointed by price action. Irrespective of whether it is a “buy” or “sell” signal act as soon as possible.

The Dow Theorist

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