For roughly 2 ½ months stocks have been declining. Dave Moening of “StateoftheMarkets.com”, whom I hold in high regard, has recently penned that investor’s sentiment is very bearish, and hence, a rally is to be expected.
He writes that the odds now favor that one month from now stocks will have advanced. However, I feel this would be a mere secondary reaction (to be faded) under a primary bear market, since a primary bear market for stocks was signaled on December 11, 2015. After such a signal stocks have fallen in earnest.
Furthermore, a very long term “sell” signal (Dow Theory applied to weekly bars) was flashed on January 8th, 2016, as explained here:
Thus, both the intermediate trend and the very long term trend have turned bearish in unison. Nothing is certain, but technically stocks are screaming “bear market”. Therefore, it seems likely that stocks are close to a rally of secondary proportions. However, such a bounce has high odds of fizzling out.
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary and secondary trend is bearish as explained here.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is bearish, as explained here.
The Dow Theorist
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