Monday, March 30, 2015

Dow Theory Update for March 30: Gary Antonacci, of Dual Momentum, joins the Dow Theory Letters

Primary and secondary trends remain unchanged

I have praised Gary Antonacci, of Dual Momentum, and his book, in the past.

I am very frank to you: If I suddenly forgot all about the Dow Theory, I’d surely follow the approach expounded by Gary Antonacci. He’s clearly a trend follower, and the methods he uses are clearly sound. Very sound indeed. He is BS-free.

On the other hand, you know that this blogger truly yours is clearly highly skeptical with Richard Russell, of the “Dow Theory Letters." The Russell of yesteryear was a great Dow Theorist; however, in recent years (let’s say after 2009) he’s allowed to let his Dow Theory background to be clouded by extraneous theories. His ingrained pessimism has prevented him from participating in the great stock rallies that followed 2009 and to stick to gold in spite of all the negative technical evidence. Result: Successful market calls have gone down the drain, but his gift for entertaining good writing has helped subscribers to put up with dismal performance.

Thus, I see as a very valuable contribution the fact that Gary Antonacci has joined the “Dow Theory Letters." If he sticks to the ideas explained in his book and doesn’t allow the fundamentalist temptation to cloud his judgment (as Russell did), he will certainly account for a great deal of successful market calls. The downside is that he is likely to be less colorful than Russell, and, let’s be honest, the investment masses, want “fundamental gossip," not dry technical information, albeit successful. This is why the majority, prey to their egos, will never manage to follow a pure technical approach, and hence, pure technical writers are not very likely to gather a huge following (which is good). It is much more appealing to rationalize every little move of the market and to lambaste the Fed, the politicos, and whatever. While I have eyes and I don't like many things, I have charts, and I know that opinions just make a nice (or unpleasant) talk around the kitchen table. But money is made by market movements, not by opinions.

General trends

They have not changed. So what I wrote here remains valid.

The Dow Theorist

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