Thursday, April 2, 2015

Dow Theory Update for April 2: Primary and secondary trends continue unchanged

Lull in the markets

Days pass by and trends don’t change. No Dow Theorist ever promised that applying the Dow Theory is going to be thrilling. It is dry, and does not lend itself to fancy and entertaining reading.

US Stocks remain caught in a narrow range, which seems to be getting narrower for the SPY and the Industrials (see chart below). One way or the other, stocks should soon show us the way to go.

SPY (bottom) and Industrials see shrinking volatility
The Transports, on the other hand, have violated their January 30, 2015 closing lows (secondary reaction lows), something which has not been confirmed by the Industrials and the SPY. As you know, one of the tenets of the Dow Theory is than unconfirmed movements tend to be deceptive.

Schannep, of “” has just alerted his subscribers that several studies extraneous to the Dow Theory (i.e. use of margin in broker’s accounts) seem to be anticipating a primary bear market. Thus, even though, he has not issued a “sell” signal, as he acts on actual signals, not mere conjectures, he clearly sees clouds on the horizon.

As to the precious metals and their miners ETFs, more of the same. The primary trend is bullish and the ongoing secondary reaction continues. 

Thus, my analysis of March 24 and March 12, remains valid:

The Dow Theorist

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