I am publishing this post before the close. Therefore, things might change. Readers, do your own homework
GOLD AND SILVER
A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.
The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 11/11/21, as I explained here. Despite the current pullback, the trend remains bullish.
The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the bullish trend -Step #2-), and the setup for a primary bear market signal has been completed (Step #3), as I explained here. I explained the formation of a setup for a potential bear market signal in my June 6th 2022 post.
On 6/14/22, GLD broke down below the 5/13/22 closing lows unconfirmed by SLV (Step #4). So no primary bear market was signaled. If or when SLV closes down below its 5/12/22 secondary reaction closing lows, a primary bear market will be signaled.
The Table below summarizes the key events from the last bull market highs (Step 1) to the current breakdown (Step 4):
B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.
The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 3/1/22, as was explained here.
In my June 6th 2022 post I explained the development of a secondary reaction and the setup for a potential primary bear market signal. On 6/14/22, GLD broke down below its 5/12/22 secondary reaction closing lows unconfirmed by SLV. Absent confirmation by SLV no primary bear market has been signaled, and the primary bull market remains in force.
The Table below summarizes the key events from the last bull market highs (Step 1) to
the current breakdown (Step 4):
In this specific instance both the "long" and "short-term" Dow Theory are in gear. It happens every now and then.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.
The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 3/10/22, as I explained here. Despite the current pullback, the trend remains bullish.
Please read my post of May 26th, 2022, and June 6th, 2022, for an accurate rendering of the current situation (namely, secondary reaction (Step #3) and set up for a potential primary bear market signal (Step #4) completed).
On 6/14/22, GDX
broke down below its 5/12/22 secondary reaction closing lows unconfirmed by
SIL (Step #4). Absent confirmation by SIL no
primary bear market has been signaled, and the primary bull market remains
in force.
The Table below summarizes the key events from the last bull market highs (Step 1) to
the current breakdown (Step 4):
B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.
The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 8/9/2021, as was explained here.
Currently,
there is a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market, as was
explained here.
Recent lower lows by GDX have not changed my previous analysis, so the
secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market remains in force. If SIL confirmed by breaching its 1/28/22 closing lows, then the primary bear market would be reconfirmed and the secondary (bullish) reaction terminated.
The Table below summarizes the key events from the last bear market lows (Step 1) to the current breakdown (Step 4):
Overview: The spreadsheet below displays the primary trend in the pairs SLV/GLD and SIL/GDX when we appraise them with either the "shorter-term" or "longer-term" interpretation of the Dow Theory. The red color displays a primary bear market, and the blue displays a primary bull market.
Sincerely,
Manuel Blay
Editor of thedowtheory.com
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