Same with GDX unconfirmed by SIL
I am stranded in
an airport due to very bad weather conditions in USA. Lighting, floods, flights cancelled, etc. Let’s try to get done a
quick post.
US STOCKS
The primary trend as per
Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since
March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the
S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing lows.
However, “capitulation”
suggested the opening of a partial commitment to stocks on the very day of the
market bottom (12/24/2018). More about that partial commitment here.
And more about
“capitulation” in general in the following links:
On June 5th,
2019 a setup for a primary bear market for US stocks was completed as was
explained here.
Since June 5th,
the technical situation has not changed as per the Dow Theory. The primary
trend remains bullish, the cyclical trend which is longer term than the primary
trend is bullish too (as explained here, and more in general here), the secondary trend
is bearish (secondary reaction) and the setup for a primary bear market signal
remains in place. Stocks continue edging higher even though no index has
managed to break up the last primary bull market highs prior to the onset of
the current secondary reaction, and thus we cannot declare the end of the ongoing secondary reaction.
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/24/2018 as explained here. No changes. We
finally got a secondary reaction on 4/16/2019 when GLD violated its 03/07/2019
closing lows (and confirmed SLV which had done so some days ago). More about
the entrails of such a secondary reaction here and here.
Furthermore, currently SLV
and GLD setup for a primary bear market signal as was explained here.
On June 18th, 2019 GLD managed to break up above the
closing highs of the primary bull market unconfirmed
by SLV. Hence, we cannot declare the end of the secondary reaction.
However, since the primary trend has been bullish (we only have a secondary
reaction), the primary trend remains bullish. However, the longer it takes for
SLV to confirm the more suspect the higher highs made by GLD will look.
Here you have a chart (lower quality as usual) as I don’t have my
normal desktop at my disposal. The blue horizontal lines display the last
primary bull market highs. As you can see, SLV is seriously lagging behind
gold.
 |
| GLD is strong. However, SLV is far from confirming |
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary trend is
bullish since 12/18/2018 as explained here. No changes.
The secondary trend is
bearish (secondary reaction) since 4/18/2019 when GDX violated its previous
03/06/2019 closing lows (and confirmed SLV which had done so several days
before), as was explained here. and here
Furthermore, currently SIL
and GDX setup for a primary bear market signal as was explained here.
On June 17th,
2019 GDX managed to break up above the closing highs of the primary bull market
unconfirmed by SIL. Hence, we cannot
declare the end of the secondary reaction. However, since the primary trend has
been bullish (we only have a secondary reaction), the primary trend remains
bullish. However, the longer it takes for SIL to confirm the more suspect the
higher highs made by GDX will look.
Here you have a chart
(lower quality as usual) as I don’t have my normal desktop at my disposal. The blue
horizontal lines display the last primary bull market highs. As you can see, SIL
is seriously lagging behind GDX.
 |
| GDX acting strong whereas SIL is lagging behind. Higher highs not confirmed |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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