I apologize for the delay in posting. As I hinted in my last post (here) due to health-related issues of one of my sons I am very short of time. While not life threatening the health of my son demands lots of time on my side.
Furthermore, compounding health issues I underwent an accident (riding a mule, go figure!) last July. Once again, while not fatal (it could have been) I was injured and I am still in the process of recovering.
All in all, to my usual lack of free time, health issues deprived of the time, and more importantly, peace of mind to blog. Hopefully, little by little, I can go back writing again.
This first “post hiatus” post, will merely provide the “big” picture. Subsequent posts (if I find time) will delve more into details.
I do thank those readers which have sent emails inquiring about my personal situation. Thanks to all. By the same token, thanks to the readers that have posted comments whishing me the best.
As I warned in my last post, the S&P 500 bettered its secondary reaction closing highs, and on June 12th, 2018 a primary bull market signal was signaled. On August 3rd, 2018 the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory did also signal a primary bull market as well (details and charts to be given hopefully soon). As stocks continue making new highs no secondary (bearish) reaction is in sight.
While I don’t have time to comment, here you have the charts concerning the market action since the beginning of this year, which includes the top, the secondary reaction, the primary (and brief) bear market signal, the subsequent secondary reaction and primary bull market signal.
|The current primary bull market which hitherto has survived one secondary reaction
And below the charts concerning market action since 2018 as per the classical Dow Theory
|The "classical" Dow Theory is in gear with Schannep's Dow Theory: primary bull market
GOLD AND SILVER
GLD broke up above the secondary reaction closing highs (on 1/24/2018, 2/14/2018, and 2/15/2018) unconfirmed by SLV and hence we got no primary bull market signal. Once again we see the importance of the principle of confirmation.
Later on, on July 17th, 2018 SLV violated its primary bear market lows of July 7th, 2018 unconfirmed by GLD. Finally gold capitulated and violated its primary bear market closing lows on August 1st, 2018, thus confirming SLV. The confirmed violation of the primary bear market lows, reconfirmed the primary bear market. Please mind that this was not a signal to “sell”, as such a signal (the indication of the change of the trend from bullish to bearish) was already given on July 7th, 2017. The confirmed violation of the last recorded primary bear market lows merely indicates a reconfirmation of the existing trend.
Here you have an updated chart:
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs
To recap: The primary trend was declared bearish on October 4th, 016, as was explained here and here.
On 11/10/2017 SIL violated its primary bear market closing and GDX did not confirm. Lack of confirmation implied that the primary bear market has not been reconfirmed. On August 15th, 2018 GDX finally violated its December 15th, 2016 primary bear market lows, thereby nSIL. Thus, the primary bear market has been reconfirmed. As I wrote when commenting GLD and SLV, please mind that this was not a signal to “sell”, as such a signal (the indication of the change of the trend from bullish to bearish) was already given on October 4th, 2016. The confirmed violation of the last recorded primary bear market lows merely indicates a reconfirmation of the existing trend.
Thus, we are seeing a quite long primary bear market as we are approaching its second anniversary. Two years without a signal. Not bad.
Here you have the charts depicting the action since the end of 2016 until today.
The Dow Theorist