I apologize for
the delay in posting. As I hinted in my last post (here) due to health-related issues of one of my sons I am
very short of time. While not life threatening the health of my son demands
lots of time on my side.
Furthermore,
compounding health issues I underwent an accident (riding a mule, go figure!)
last July. Once again, while not fatal (it could have been) I was injured and I
am still in the process of recovering.
All in all, to
my usual lack of free time, health issues deprived of the time, and more
importantly, peace of mind to blog. Hopefully, little by little, I can go back
writing again.
This first “post
hiatus” post, will merely provide the “big” picture. Subsequent posts (if I find time) will
delve more into details.
I do thank those
readers which have sent emails inquiring about my personal situation. Thanks to
all. By the same token, thanks to the readers that have posted comments
whishing me the best.
US STOCKS
As I warned in
my last post, the S&P 500 bettered its secondary reaction
closing highs, and on June 12th, 2018 a primary bull market signal
was signaled. On August 3rd, 2018 the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory
did also signal a primary bull market as well (details and charts to be given
hopefully soon). As stocks continue making new highs no secondary (bearish)
reaction is in sight.
While I don’t
have time to comment, here you have the charts concerning the market action
since the beginning of this year, which includes the top, the secondary
reaction, the primary (and brief) bear market signal, the subsequent secondary
reaction and primary bull market signal.
 |
| The current primary bull market which hitherto has survived one secondary reaction |
And below the
charts concerning market action since 2018 as per the classical Dow Theory
 |
| The "classical" Dow Theory is in gear with Schannep's Dow Theory: primary bull market |
GOLD AND SILVER
GLD broke up above the secondary reaction closing highs (on 1/24/2018,
2/14/2018, and 2/15/2018) unconfirmed by
SLV and hence we got no primary bull market signal. Once again we see the
importance of the principle of confirmation.
Later on, on July 17th, 2018 SLV violated its primary bear
market lows of July 7th, 2018 unconfirmed by GLD. Finally gold capitulated and violated its primary bear
market closing lows on August 1st, 2018, thus confirming SLV. The
confirmed violation of the primary bear market lows, reconfirmed the primary bear market. Please mind that this was not
a signal to “sell”, as such a signal (the indication of the change of the trend
from bullish to bearish) was already given on July 7th, 2017. The
confirmed violation of the last recorded primary bear market lows merely
indicates a reconfirmation of the existing trend.
Here you have an
updated chart:
 |
| Primary bear market finally reconfirmed |
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs
To recap: The primary trend was
declared bearish on October 4th, 016, as was explained here and here.
On 11/10/2017 SIL violated its primary bear market closing and GDX did
not confirm. Lack of confirmation implied that the primary bear market has not
been reconfirmed. On August 15th, 2018 GDX finally violated its
December 15th, 2016 primary bear market lows, thereby nSIL. Thus,
the primary bear market has been reconfirmed. As I wrote when commenting GLD
and SLV, please mind that
this was not a signal to “sell”, as such a signal (the indication of the change
of the trend from bullish to bearish) was already given on October 4th,
2016. The confirmed violation of the last recorded primary bear market lows
merely indicates a reconfirmation of the existing trend.
Thus, we are
seeing a quite long primary bear market as we are approaching its second
anniversary. Two years without a signal. Not bad.
Here you have
the charts depicting the action since the end of 2016 until today.
 |
| Long primary bear market with recent reconfirmation |
The Dow Theorist
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