Trends unchanged
I am writing before the close so things might change
after the close. So readers beware.
US STOCKS
The secondary trend is bearish
(secondary reaction against the primary bull market) as explained here
According to the “Rhea/Classical”
Dow Theory no secondary reaction has been signaled yet, as explained here.
On September 30th,
the Transports managed to rally more than 3% off its September 14th
secondary reaction closing lows, and hence it set up US stocks for a primary
bear market signal. Moreover, the Transports made higher closing highs (the primary
bull market closing highs of September 8th were bettered) which was unconfirmed by the SPY and Industrials.
The longer the lack of confirmation persists the more suspect the breakout.
Please mind that a setup for a
primary bear market is not the actual signal. If the Transports breakout got
finally confirmed, the primary bull market would be reconfirmed.
On October 13, 2016 the SPY
violated its September 14 secondary reaction closing lows (red horizontal lines on the right side of the chart). However, until now,
neither the Industrials nor the Transports have confirmed. Thus, no primary
bear market has been signaled yet.
Thus, the market remains in a nowhere's land. The breakup of the Transports (which is bullish) remains unconfirmed, whereas the violation of the secondary reaction lows by the SPY (which is bearish) remains unconfirmed. Tie.
Here you have an updated chart
depicting the current situation:
 |
| Violation of secondary reaction lows by the SPY remains unconfirmed |
GOLD AND SILVER
GOLD AND SILVER
MINERS ETFs
General
observation for US Stocks, gold and silver and their ETF miners
The trend, when appraised by the Dow Theory when using
weekly bars, is bearish for all the above mentioned markets.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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