Dow Theory Update for November 20: US Stocks set up for primary bear market.

Gold and Silver miners ETFs still flirting with primary bear market signal

US STOCKS

The primary trend is  bullish as explained here and here

The secondary trend is bearish (secondary bearish reaction against the primary bullish trend) as explained here:

Yesterday (Nov 19), the Transports rallied more than 3% from the secondary reaction closing lows and hence the setup for a primary bear market was completed. In case we had any doubts, today the SPY and the Industrials did exceed the +3% threshold. The +3% rallies are displayed with a blue rectangel (see chart below). All in all, now we have to wait for either one of the following developments:

            1) Either the secondary reaction closing lows are jointly violated, in which case a primary bear market would be signaled.

            2) Or, the last recorded closing highs are jointly broken out, in which case the primary bull market would be reconfirmed.

The horizontal red lines on the right side of the chart displays the critical level to be violated for a primary bear market to be declared. Below updated charts:

We are approaching a moment of truth: Either primary bull market reconfirmed or primary bear market

 

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary and secondary trend is bearish as explained here.

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETF

The primary trend remains bullish as explained here.

SIL has violated its 9/10/2015 closing low (last primary bear market low) unconfirmed by GDX. Both ETF miners are under a strong secondary reaction (displayed by the red rectangles on the chart below).

We have to wait for GDX to confirm. Until then we cannot declare a new primary bear market.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist