US Stocks have not rallied three percent yet.
Very brief update.
US STOCKS
The secondary trend is bearish (secondary bearish
reaction against the primary bullish trend) as explained here:
I wrote yesterday that at least one index had to rally
by at least 3% in order to set up stocks for a primary bear market signal.
Well, the SPY rallied more than this amount (by a hair) but the S&P 500
index has merely risen 2.99% off the 11/13/2015 closing lows. The Industrials
and Transports are well below the 3% threshold.
Thus, we cannot say that the lows of the secondary
reaction have been finally made, and accordingly no setup for a primary bear
market signal has occurred yet.
GOLD
AND SILVER
The primary and secondary trend is bearish as explained
here.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETF
The primary trend remains bullish as explained here.
SIL has violated its 9/10/2015
closing low (last primary bear market low) unconfirmed by GDX. Both ETF miners
are under a strong secondary reaction (displayed by the red rectangles on the
chart below).
We have to wait for GDX to
confirm. Until then we cannot declare a new primary bear market. Today GDX (as
well as SIL) rallied. Hence, no
confirmation has occurred yet.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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