Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Dow Theory Update for November 18: Precious metals miners ETFs averted primary bear market signal for another day

US Stocks have not rallied three percent yet.

Very brief update.


The primary and secondary trends are bullish as explained here and here

The secondary trend is bearish (secondary bearish reaction against the primary bullish trend) as explained here:

I wrote yesterday that at least one index had to rally by at least 3% in order to set up stocks for a primary bear market signal. Well, the SPY rallied more than this amount (by a hair) but the S&P 500 index has merely risen 2.99% off the 11/13/2015 closing lows. The Industrials and Transports are well below the 3% threshold.

Thus, we cannot say that the lows of the secondary reaction have been finally made, and accordingly no setup for a primary bear market signal has occurred yet.


The primary and secondary trend is bearish as explained here.


The primary trend remains bullish as explained here.

SIL has violated its 9/10/2015 closing low (last primary bear market low) unconfirmed by GDX. Both ETF miners are under a strong secondary reaction (displayed by the red rectangles on the chart below).

We have to wait for GDX to confirm. Until then we cannot declare a new primary bear market. Today GDX (as well as SIL) rallied. Hence, no confirmation has occurred yet.


The Dow Theorist

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