Primary Trends unchanged
On 9/16/2015 the SPY and the Industrials bettered its 08/27/2015 closing highs, and hence confirmed the Transports which had already done so some days ago. All in all, on 9/16/2015:
a) The three indices we monitor had rallied by more than three percent (extent requirement fulfilled).
b) The time requirement (at least 8 trading days as the average of the three indices) was also met.
Here you have a chart. The blue rectangles on the right side display the ongoing secondary reaction.
|Secondary reaction against the primary bear market|
We don’t know yet whether the secondary reaction has put its final top, since no index has declined by more than 3% from the closing highs of 9/16/2015. When at least one index does so, we will know that:
a) The market would have set up for a primary bull market signal.
b) The final highs of the secondary reaction would have been made.
So we will observe the US Stock market.
The primary and secondary trend is bearish as explained here.
No rally from the lows has qualified as a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bearish trend. So the bear remains entrenched.
GOLD AND SILVER MINER'S ETFs
As to the gold and silver miners ETFs,on 3/10/15 SIL violated its 12/16/2014 primary bear market closing low. On July 8, 2015 SIL violated its March 10th, 2015 closing low.
On 7/1/2015 GDX violated its secondary reaction lows of 3/10/2015, and hence, it confirmed the bearish action of SIL thereby signaling a primary bear market signal.
Thus the primary and secondary trend for SIL and GDX is bearish.
By the way, my musings concerning the need to promptly and without hesitation honor the Dow Theory signals do fully apply to SIL and GDX. Price action after the primary bear signal offered no respite to sellers. No rally, no mercy.
As with gold and silver, no rally from the lows has qualified as a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bearish trend. So the bear remains entrenched.
The Dow Theorist