Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Dow Theory Update for August 5: No primary bear market signal for US Stocks (yet or never)

Trends unchanged for US Stocks and gold universe

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here.

All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either:

a) Stocks jointly violate their secondary reaction lows, in which case a primary bear market will be signaled.

b) Stocks jointly better their last recorded primary bull market highs (May 19th, for the INDU, May 21st, for the SPY, and May 18th for the TRAN), in which case the primary bull market will be reconfirmed. 

On July 27th, the Industrials violated their July 8th secondary reaction lows. However, this was not a primary bear market signal because the SPY did not confirm. Furthermore, as explained here, under Schannep’s Dow Theory the SPY must always be present for a primary bear/bull market signal to be valid.

All in all, in spite of recent declines, the lull continues.


The primary and secondary trend is bearish as explained here.

By the way, the steep decline that followed SLV’s and GLD’s primary bear market signal, confirms that one should not “hope” for a rebound following a primary bear market signal in an attempt to get a better “exit” price. Experience says that ca. 2/3 of the time, a small rally follows immediately after the primary bear market signal. However, 1/3 of the time, such a rally fails to materialize and we get an even steeper decline. The money won by not selling immediately is more than lost in the 1/3 of occurrences when a collapse follows a primary bear market signal (i.e. 1929 and 1987 crash among other instances).

Bottom line: One must react as soon as possible once a primary bear market signal has been flashed.


As to the gold and silver miners ETFs,on 3/10/15 SIL violated its 12/16/2014 primary bear market closing low. On July 8, 2015 SIL violated its March 10th, 2015 closing low.

On 7/1/2015 GDX violated its secondary reaction lows of 3/10/2015, and hence, it confirmed the bearish action of SIL thereby signaling a primary bear market signal.

Thus the primary and secondary trend for SIL and GDX is bearish.

By the way, my musings concerning the need to promptly and without hesitation honor the Dow Theory signals do fully apply to SIL and GDX. Price action after the primary bear signal offered no respite to sellers. No rally, no mercy.

The Dow Theorist

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