Trends remain unchanged.
US Stocks
The SPY, Industrials closed
down. The Transports closed up and scored a higher high, which remains
unconfirmed. Furthermore, today we did also see divergence, as the other
indices we monitor closed down. Let’s see what happens, but the SPY and Industrials
should resume their rally soon or a secondary reaction might be in the making.
The primary trend was reconfirmed
as bullish on October 17th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March
7th, 2014, for the reasons given here, here and here.
So the current primary bull
market signal has survived three secondary reactions.
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed down. For
the reasons I explained here, and more recently here the primary
trend remains bearish.
For the primary trend to turn
bullish, SLV and GLD should jointly
break above the secondary (bullish) reaction highs. As a reminder, the
secondary reaction closing highs were made on August 27th, 2013.
From such highs the market declined without jointly violating the June 27th,
2013 primary bear market lows.
Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The
primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the
primary bearish trend), as explained here.
On a statistical basis the
primary bear market for GLD and SLV is getting old. More than one year since
the bear market signal was flashed has elapsed. However, I am extremely skeptical
as to the predictive power of statistics. I prefer price action to guide me,
and the Dow Theory tells me that the primary trend remains bearish until
reversed.
Furthermore, the June 27, 2013
lows remain untouched. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the odds
that something might be changing. But I wait for the verdict of
price action.
As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. I
profusely explained that SIL and GDX set up for a primary bull market signal.
You can find all the relevant information from a Dow Theory standpoint here.
Please mind that a setup is
not the real thing. So the primary trend has not turned bullish yet (or maybe “never”).
The secondary trend is
bullish, as explained here. In spite of short term
bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.
The primary trend for SIL
and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.
The secondary trend is
bullish, as explained here. In spite of
short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.
The primary trend for SIL
and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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