Thursday, October 5, 2023

Dow Theory Update for October 5: The primary bear market in gold and silver reconfirmed on 9/29/2023

 Gold and Silver miners ETFs (GLD & SIL) bearish trend unchanged


General Remarks:

In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.


A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.

 I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bear market since 6/21/23.

Following the June 2023 lows, a rally followed that qualified as a secondary reaction against the primary bear market. More details about the secondary reaction HERE.

After the rally, a pullback followed that set up both ETFs for a potential primary bull market signal (more HERE).

On 8/14/2023, GLD violated its 6/29/23 primary bear market low. SLV did not confirm until 9/29/23 when it pierced its 6/22/23 bear market lows. Hence, lower confirmed lows, imply:

a)     The primary bear market has been reaffirmed.

b)     The secondary bullish reaction against the bear market has been canceled.

c)     The setup for a potential primary bull market signal has been terminated.

The Table below shows the details:


The charts below display the most recent price action. The blue rectangles show the secondary (bullish) reaction against the bear market. The brown rectangles display the pullback that set up both ETFs for a potential primary bull market. The red horizontal line highlights the last recorded primary bear market lows, which have been jointly violated.

 B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction. 

As I explained HERE, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/21/23.

The latest rally did not persist for a minimum of 15 confirmed trading days, leading to the absence of a secondary reaction.

Consequently, both the primary and secondary trends remain bearish.


Manuel Blay

Editor of




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