Primary trend for US interest rates bearish
GOLD AND SILVER
In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.
A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.
The primary trend was signaled as bullish on November 11th 2021, as was explained here.
Both ETFs have declined off their respective 11/17/21 (GLD) and 11/12/21 (SLV) bull market closing highs. The pullback qualifies as a secondary reaction, as explained here.
The final secondary reaction lows were made on 12/2/21 (GLD) and 12/9/21 (SLV). A rally ensued, which met the Volatility-Adjusted Minimum Movement (VAMM). Accordingly, the setup for a potential primary bear market signal was fulfilled. The Table below contains all data:
The charts below display the most recent situation. The brownish rectangles display the current secondary reaction against the Bull market. The blue rectangles show the rally at the point when the setup for a potential primary bear market signal was met. A joint penetration of the red horizontal lines (secondary reaction lows) would entail a primary bear market signal. If the last primary bull market highs (Step #1 Table above) were jointly broken up, the secondary reaction would be cancelled, and the primary bull market reconfirmed. So now we have to wait and observe.
B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.
The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 11/27/2020, as was explained here.
The primary bear market was reaffirmed on 9/17/2021, as was explained here
I reported the existence of a secondary reaction against the primary bear market in my 11/13/21 post.
The setup for a primary bull market signal was completed 12/2/21 (GLD) and 12/9/21 (SLV), as I explained here.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.
The primary trend was signaled as bullish on 11/11/21, as was explained here.
The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as was explained here.
The final lows of the secondary reaction were made on 12/15/21 for both SIL and GDX. SIL broke down below the lows of the previous primary bear market (9/29/21) unconfirmed by GDX. Absent confirmation, no primary bear market was signaled. Following the 12/15/21 lows, there has been a rally that set up both ETFs for a potential primary bear market signal. The table below contains all the details:
On 1/6/22, SIL broke down below its 12/15/21 secondary reaction closing low unconfirmed by GDX. Hence, no primary bear market was signaled.
Below the updated charts. The orange rectangles display the ongoing secondary reaction. The grey rectangles on the right side of the charts show small rallies that did not reach the VAMM and hence lacked amplitude to set up GLD and SLV for a potential primary bear market signal. The blue rectangles display the rally that setup both ETFs for a potential primary bear market signal.
B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding at least three weeks of movement to declare a secondary reaction.
The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 8/9/2021, as was explained here.
I reported about the existence of a secondary reaction against the primary bear market in my 11/13/21 post.
In my 12/14/21 post, I explained that the setup for a potential primary bull market had been co
Overview: The spreadsheet below displays the primary trend in the pairs SLV/GLD and SIL/GDX when we appraise them with either the “shorter-term” or longer-term interpretation of the Dow Theory. Red color displays a primary bear market, and blue displays a primary bull market.
No time to post today concerning US Bonds. When appraised without the 3 weeks constraint, the primary trend turned bearish on January 5th, 2022. More details about the new bear market soon.
Sincerely,
Manuel Blay
Editor of thedowtheory.com
I've been away for a while. It's good to be back. As always, your astute and generous analyses are much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteAlex