Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Dow Theory Update for September 7: Secondary reaction against the primary bear market for SIL and GDX


US stocks under a secondary reaction as per the “classical” Dow Theory




A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma.


The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 8/9/2021, as was explained here.


On 8/20/2021, SIL and GDX made their last recorded lows. Off such lows a rally followed until 9/3/2021 which lasted 10 trading days. As to the extent, as you can see in the table below, both precious metals have amply exceeded the volatility-adjusted minimum movements (VAMM). More about VAMM here.



So we can declare the existence of a secondary reaction as both the time requirement (10 confirmed trading days is enough) and the extent requirement (both precious metals are above their respective VAMM) have been met. Therefore, the secondary trend is now bullish.


Below the charts showing the most recent developments: The breakdown of the secondary reaction lows (red horizontal lines) that resulted in a primary bear market signal, and the most recent rally (blue rectangles on the right side of the charts) that qualifies as a secondary reaction against the ongoing bear market. The small grey rectangles inside the orange rectangles (sec. reaction) display rallies that did not reach the necessary extent to set up the ETFs for a bear market signal. By the way, my thanks to Jack Schannep, who suggested a change in the layout of my charts. Do you like them better?



Remark: As you can read here, my real-time application since 2012 of the Dow Theory to GDX and SIL yielded promising results (less drawdown and more performance than Buy & Hold). However, I would not be surprised to see even better results if we used three ETFs (i.e., GDX, SIL and GDXJ), as it is likely that we would have more signal and less noise. So maybe the final word about applying the Dow Theory to precious metals has not been said yet, as I aim to do even better.


B) Market situation if one sticks to the traditional interpretation demanding more than three weeks of movement in order to declare a secondary reaction.


The primary trend was signaled as bearish on 8/9/2021, as was explained here.


Given that the rally off the primary bear market lows has lasted only 10 trading days, we are still far from 15 trading days, so no secondary reaction has been signaled. The secondary trend remains bearish too.




No time to write extensively. Watch the 8/12/21 closing lows for TLT and IEF. IEF broke them down today. TLT refused to confirm. Tomorrow’s price action may be important. I hope to write a post in the next few days.



Under the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory, I spot a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. Charts and a more profound explanation will follow in the next few days.



Manuel Blay

Co-Editor of thedowtheory.com


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