Friday, June 30, 2017

Dow Theory Update for June 30: The Transports have not confirmed yet

Trends remain unchanged


Days pass by and nothing is accomplished technically, which is normal, as primary trends, as appraised by the Dow Theory, tend to last one or more years. To some extent, what we witnessed in the last few years (primary trends of shorter duration in both US indices, precious metals and their stocks) was an oddity rather than the norm.  In my last post I was wondering whether "fibrilation" was over. In real time, we can never know. However, what I see is that trends are lasting longer, which results in the paucity of "news".


The primary trend is bullish since November 21st, 2016, as explained here and here.

 The analysis I made in my post of June 1st, 2017 remains fully valid. After June 1st the Industrials and the S&P 500 have made marginally higher closing highs, while the Transports remain below their last recorded March 1st closing highs, in spite of today’s rally which put them at shooting distance of their March 1st highs.

All in all: No confirmation. The longer it takes for the Transports to confirm, the more suspect the current rally becomes.

Here you have an updated chart:

Some 30 points and the Transport would have confirmed the Industrials and the S&P 500



The primary trend turned bullish on April 12th, 2017 as explained here

The secondary trend is bearish, as explained in depth here.

SLV and GLD set up for a primary bear market signal, as explained here.
On June 6th, 2017 GLD broke up its April 18th, 2017 primary bull market closing high (bottom chart, blue arrow). However, SLV did not confirm by a wide margin (which I interpret as being bearish), which implies that the primary bull market was not confirmed. Immediately thereafter, both precious metals have declined with gusto.

If SLV and GLD jointly violated their primary bear market closing lows (red horizontal lines), a primary bear market would be signaled.


The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set up for a primary bull market signal.

The Dow Theorist

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