Trends remain unchanged
Days pass by and nothing is accomplished
technically, which is normal, as primary trends, as appraised by the Dow
Theory, tend to last one or more years. To some extent, what we witnessed in
the last few years (primary trends of shorter duration in both US indices,
precious metals and their stocks) was an oddity rather than the norm. In my last post I was wondering whether "fibrilation" was over. In real time, we can never know. However, what I see is that trends are lasting longer, which results in the paucity of "news".
US STOCKS
The analysis I made in my post
of June 1st, 2017
remains fully valid. After June 1st the Industrials and the S&P
500 have made marginally higher closing highs, while the Transports remain
below their last recorded March 1st closing highs, in spite of today’s
rally which put them at shooting distance of their March 1st highs.
All in all: No confirmation.
The longer it takes for the Transports to confirm, the more suspect the current
rally becomes.
Here you have an updated
chart:
 |
| Some 30 points and the Transport would have confirmed the Industrials and the S&P 500 |
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend turned
bullish on April 12th, 2017 as explained here
The secondary trend is
bearish, as explained in depth here.
SLV and GLD set up for a
primary bear market signal, as explained here.
On June 6th, 2017 GLD
broke up its April 18th, 2017 primary bull market closing high
(bottom chart, blue arrow). However, SLV did not confirm by a wide margin
(which I interpret as being bearish), which implies that the primary bull
market was not confirmed. Immediately thereafter, both precious metals have
declined with gusto.
If SLV and GLD jointly
violated their primary bear market closing lows (red horizontal lines), a
primary bear market would be signaled.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs
The secondary trend is bullish
as explained here
As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set
up for a primary bull market signal.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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