Trends unchanged
The Industrials remain below their secondary reaction closing highs, and hence no primary bull market signal has been signaled. More about this here
The first article
clearly shows that making money in the market is not so easy. Even for buy and
hold, and assuming the very lenient US stock market for investors in the last
decades, there are very large periods of underperformance. In other words, if
the average return is on the vicinity of 8% p.a., one is very likely to undergo
long and rough periods of underperformance. Of course, market timers (the Dow
Theory is market timing) are not immune to underperformance both against the
buy and hold benchmark as well as against our own average return (that is, is,
i.e., the Dow Theory averages 11% p.a., there will be periods of time where returns will be well below its own average or buy and hold average to boot).
The “Systematic
Relative Strength” blog of Dorset Wright in its article "Managing Lumpy" says it all.
The second one,
which brings me reminiscences of my post “Why Drawdowns matter” has been posted
by Barry Ritholtz in Bloomber View. It bears the title “Invest like aBillionaire (if you are one)”. Barry clearly explains that there is no “one
size fits for all” investment approach and that the individual circumstances of
each investor determine the appropriate investing approach. What suits billionaires
may not be suitable to other investors.
My takeaway from the two articles: Nobody said
investing is going to be easy in real time. We must get psychologically and
financially prepared to endure drawdowns
and underperformance. Furthermore, we have to know who we are, both mentally
and financially, and thus blindly mimicking the trades that billionaires make
may be detrimental to our interests.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
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