Dow Theory Update for July 13: US Stocks set up for primary bear market

Trends unchanged

US STOCKS

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here.

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html

The Transports have rallied more than 3% off their July 8^th closing lows. The SPY and Industrials have failed to reach the 3% threshold. However, in order to set up stocks for a primary bear market signal we don’t need confirmation. Just one index rallying more than three percent suffices to set up the stocks market for a primary bear market signal. So now either:

a) Stocks jointly violate their secondary reaction lows, in which case a primary bear market will be signaled.

b) Stocks jointly better their last recorded primary bull market highs (May 19^th, for the INDU, May 21^st, for the SPY, and May 18^th for the TRAN), in which case the primary bull market will be reconfirmed.

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend is bullish as explained here.

The secondary trend turned bearish on February 6^th, 2015 (secondary reaction against the primary trend) as explained here.

The setup for a primary bear market signal was completed on March 24, 2015 as explained here.

Thus, now:

a) Either the primary bull market closing highs 01/22/2015 are bettered in which case the primary bull market will be reconfirmed.

b) Or the secondary reaction lows are violated in which case a primary bear market will be signaled. If we are to judge according to recent action, we are very close to the joint violation of the secondary reaction lows. Silver violated yesterday its secondary reaction lows. Gold, though, refused to do so, and hence, unconfirmed movements have no relevance under the Dow Theory. If/when gold violates its secondary reaction lows, the primary bear market will be signaled.

Is paper gold dying? Some thoughts about this vital aspect (to be taken with a high dose of skepticism, as this is “fundamental” thinking) here.

GOLD AND SILVER MINER'S ETFs

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs,on 3/10/15 SIL violated its 12/16/2014 primary bear market closing low. On July 8, 2015 SIL violated its March 10^th, 2015 closing low.

On 7/1/2015 GDX violated its secondary reaction lows of 3/10/2015, and hence, it confirmed the bearish action of SIL thereby signaling a primary bear market signal.

Thus the primary and secondary trend for SIL and GDX is bearish.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist