Monday, February 2, 2015

Dow Theory Update for February 2: No primary bear market signaled yet, as the SPY refuses to confirm

Trends for gold, silver and their miners unchanged.


The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. On Thursday, January 29, the Industrials violated their secondary reaction lows (which puts us very near to a primary bear market signal). On Friday 30, the Transports did so. However, lack of confirmation as the SPY has refused to violate its secondary reaction lows) prevent us from declaring a primary bear market. Today’s action has, for the time being, eloigned such a peril. So we have to further observe the market. Please bear in mind that under Schannep's Dow Theory the S&P 500 (SPY) must be present for a valid primary bull/bear market signal to be given (However, just the Industrials and Transports suffice, if we had had a secondary reaction as per classical/Rhea Dow Theory)

Stocks set up for a primary bear market signal on January 23rd, as explained here.

The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bearish as explained here.

Readers of this Dow Theory blog, stay tuned: I plan to post very shortly (maybe later today or tomorrow) the closing chapter of the saga “Schannep and I brainstorming about the last Dow Theory signal”. It has been a real tour de force, and I thank Jack Schannep of “” for sharing insights with me. For me such insights are valuable, as they are not to be found in any book.

Gold and Silver

SLV and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bullish as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish too (no secondary reaction in sight). So in spite of today’s action, not even the secondary trend has been changed if we are to look at the markets through Dow Theory lens.

Gold and Silver miners ETFs (GDX and SIL)

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL closed and GDX closed up.

On January 12, 2015, a primary bull market was signaled. More information as to the details of such a signal here.

The primary and secondary trend is bullish.

The Dow Theorist

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