Friday, August 30, 2013

Dow Theory Update for August 30: Trends unchanged




 Gold and silver back off


Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today on this blog.

Stocks

The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed down. The Transports made a lower low unconfirmed by the SPY and Industrials. The longer non-confirmation persists, the higher the odds for the end of the secondary reaction.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here. The chart below displays the current state of the secondary reaction (red rectangles), which has been with us since early August.

Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed down, expanding volume has a bearish connotation, as lower prices were met by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.

Gold and Silver

SLV, and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
06/24/2013 157.06
Bull market signaled
07/18/2013 168.87
Last close
08/30/2013 163.65
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

157.06




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-3.09% 4.20% 7.52%

 
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
06/26/2013 10.59
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 15.36
Last close
08/30/2013 15.33
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low 06/26/2013 10.59




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.20% 44.76% 45.04%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
06/26/2013 22.22
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 28.7
Last close
08/30/2013 28.13
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low 06/26/2013 22.22




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-1.99% 26.60% 29.16%


Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Dow Theory Update for August 29: Stocks consolidating. Secondary reaction unchanged



 Gold and silver miners modestly up


Stocks

The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed up.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here. The chart below displays the current state of the secondary reaction (red rectangles), which has been with us since early August. 

A text-book secondary reaction (red rectangles on the right side of the chart)
 
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed up, contracting volume has a bearish connotation, as higher prices were not confirmed by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.

Gold and Silver

SLV, and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
06/24/2013 157.06
Bull market signaled
07/18/2013 168.87
Last close
08/29/2013 164.17
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

157.06




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-2.78% 4.53% 7.52%


DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL



SIL
Bull market started
06/26/2013 10.59
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 15.36
Last close
08/29/2013 15.58
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low 06/26/2013 10.59




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




1.43% 47.12% 45.04%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
06/26/2013 22.22
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 28.7
Last close
08/29/2013 28.54
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low 06/26/2013 22.22




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-0.56% 28.44% 29.16%


Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Dow Theory Update for August 28: Gold refuses to flash primary bull market signal



Stocks continue trapped in secondary reaction


Stocks

The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down.

The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.

Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed up, contracting volume has a bearish connotation, as higher prices were not confirmed by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.

Gold and Silver

SLV, and GLD closed down. Well, it seems that, for the time being, we don’t get a primary bull market in gold and silver. Yesterday, I noted that SLV had broken up the secondary reaction high that preceded the last recorded bear market swing. However, gold refused to confirm, and by so doing, the Dow Theory dictum was clear: No primary bull market had been signaled, as one of the basic tenets of the Dow Theory is that the movement of one index must be confirmed by the other one. I also wrote that the longer the non-confirmation persists, the higher the odds for a new pullback.
 
For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

GDX and SIL closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.

 

DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY




SPY
Bull market started
06/24/2013 157.06
Bull market signaled
07/18/2013 168.87
Last close
08/28/2013 163.91
Current stop level: Bear mkt low

157.06




Unrlzd gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-2.94% 4.36% 7.52%

  
DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL




SIL
Bull market started
06/26/2013 10.59
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 15.36
Last close
08/28/2013 15.4
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low 06/26/2013 10.59




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




0.26% 45.42% 45.04%




DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX



GDX
Bull market started
06/26/2013 22.22
Bull market signaled
08/14/2013 28.7
Last close
08/28/2013 28.3
Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low 06/26/2013 22.22




Unrealized gain % Tot advance since start bull mkt Max Pot Loss %




-1.39% 27.36% 29.16%


Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist